Germany’s election results are not surprising at all. As predicted by the opinion polls for months, a conservative government under Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democratic Union will be formed. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has emerged as the second-largest party.

This also marks the real end of the Merkel era in German politics. Although current Chancellor Olaf Scholz belongs to the Social Democrats (SPD), his leadership has continued former chancellor Angela Merkel’s policies. As part of a grand coalition with Merkel’s CDU, he served as her finance minister for four years. In contrast, Friedrich Merz, despite belonging to the CDU, was side-lined by Merkel within the party and never held a government position. Scholz’s policy outlook was closer to Merkel’s, whereas Merz leans more towards the right of centre within his party.

Germany’s electoral system is designed to produce a coalition government. As the numbers stand, the SPD is most likely to be part of the coalition. However, it remains unclear who Merz’s other coalition partners will be, as the CDU and SPD together may not have enough seats. Since no mainstream political party will work with the AfD, they must seek other partners. A coalition of the conservatives, the Social Democrats, and the Greens could pose challenges to policy coherence. The FDP (Free Democratic Party), a partner in the outgoing coalition, may not even reach the five per cent threshold to enter parliament. Meanwhile, the Left has re-entered with more than eight per cent of the vote.

The German elections took place amid serious economic difficulties. The world’s third-largest economy has barely grown in the past three years. It is losing competitiveness due to rising energy costs and increasing competition with global players like China. On the security front, Russia has become a major challenge. The United States and Russia are negotiating Ukraine’s future directly, without any involvement of the EU or Germany.

During the campaign, two key issues dominated — economy and immigration — while the war in Ukraine also influenced debates. For AfD, immigration was the primary focus. Even CDU leader Friedrich Merz took a tough stance, a clear change from Angela Merkel’s open door policy of 2015. Still, the far-right has made significant gains. Their share has almost doubled since the last election. Building on these, they aim to become the largest single party in future elections.

Merz will likely seek to restore Germany’s leadership in Europe. During Merkel’s tenure, she was the de facto leader of Europe. After her departure, French President Macron attempted to fill this role but has been less effective in recent times due to domestic political challenges. With Merz at the helm in Germany, there is a real possibility that Berlin could once again take the lead in Europe.

For years, Merz, like most German politicians, has been a strong advocate for transatlantic ties. However, recent developments under the Trump administration — particularly its handling of the Ukraine war and its side-lining of Europe — have shifted his perspective. He is now calling for greater “independence” from the United States and has even expressed doubts about NATO’s future. During the campaign, he asserted that “the EU must not come to Washington as a dwarf — because then it will be treated as one”. While congratulating Merz on his victory, French President Emmanuel Macron expressed eagerness to work with him toward a “strong and sovereign Europe.”

Merz has also been frustrated with the Trump administration’s interference in German domestic politics. Elon Musk openly endorsed the AfD. Earlier, at the Munich Security Conference, US Vice President JD Vance was also highly critical of German political parties with respect to their ideology. He argued that in a democracy, “there’s no room for firewalls,” referring to the self-imposed “firewall” established by Germany’s mainstream parties to prevent collaboration with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

At a time when Germany’s economy is struggling and Europe’s competitiveness is waning, when Russia poses a strategic challenge and the transatlantic alliance is deeply unsettled, Merz could offer the strong leadership Europe urgently needs. However, before he can do so, he must first assemble a coalition—a process that could take weeks, if not months.

The writer is Chief Coordinator, DAKSHIN-Global South Centre of Excellence at RIS New Delhi and Professor at the School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University.

The article was originally published in Express Opinion on 25 February 2025 at the following link:

https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/german-elections-friedrich-merz-strong-leadership-europe-9855151/